Mong Palatino

blogging about the philippine left and southeast asian politics since 2004


@mongster is a manila-based activist, former philippine legislator, and blogger/analyst of asia-pacific affairs.

Written for The Diplomat

If protests and minor election setbacks hounded the ruling parties across Southeast Asia in the past two years, their situation this year has already improved somewhat as opposition leaders in the region run into varying difficulties.

In Myanmar, opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi still cannot run for the presidency because of a constitutional provision which disqualifies candidates who have a foreign spouse or child. Her party, National League for Democracy, is calling for a constitutional referendum, an idea that has widespread support, but the military-backed government has the final say. But this legal issue is not the only problem for Suu Kyi. Recently, her credentials as a democracy icon were tarnished when the international community questioned her silence over the persecution of the Rohingya, a Muslim ethnic group that is not recognized by the government. Some believe Suu Kyi is unwilling to speak in favor of the Rohingya so as not to displease some Buddhist nationalists and other influential electoral forces.

In Malaysia, opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim is serving a five-year prison term for sodomy. Anwar insists the charge is politically motivated and he is most likely correct; but if he fails to get a royal pardon, his continued incarceration could leave the fragile opposition coalition in disarray. Yesterday, Anwar appealed for unity after an Islamic party passed a resolution to cut ties with one of the opposition parties. How long can Anwar remain an effective leader and voice of the opposition while he is behind bars? Fortunately for him, the prime minister is also embroiled in a political and leadership crisis after being linked to an investment fund mess.

In the Philippines, opposition leader and the country’s incumbent Vice President Jejomar Binay has been accused of corruption, which could derail his bid to become president in 2016. Binay has consistently topped pre-election surveys but his ratings have tumbled after his rivals have stepped up a campaign to expose his alleged involvement in some dodgy government projects. As election season nears, more and more people are voicing their apprehension over the dangers of a Binay presidency. If the administration succeeds in disqualifying Binay in the next several months, the opposition doesn’t have a viable alternative who can match the popularity of the vice president.

In Thailand, the junta remains in power more than a year after the army launched a coup and declared martial law to end the country’s political crisis. It vowed to restore civilian rule and free elections but it delayed the holding of a constitutional referendum until next year. Politicians are regularly summoned by the army and those who are suspected of undermining the government are ordered to undergo ‘attitude-adjustment’ sessions. Protest actions are still banned. Former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra is facing trial over a rice subsidy scheme while her brother, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, is being investigated anew for a lèse-majesté violation.

Singapore’s People’s Action Party, which has been in power for five decades already, remains the dominant party in the country. It has lost some seats in several elections in the past and a growing number of young people are challenging the PAP brand and way of doing politics, but it still represents the supreme power in Singapore. The recent death of Singapore founder Lee Kuan Yew inspired many to review the successful transformation of the island state into a prosperous global city under the leadership of PAP. Singapore’s 50th anniversary this year is another opportunity for PAP to boost its image and consolidate its political base.

Cambodia’s ruling party lost a significant number of seats in 2013, but Hun Sen remains prime minister, allowing him to retain his unofficial title as Southeast Asia’s longest-serving leader. The opposition, led by Sam Rainsy, has boycotted parliament and accused the government of electoral fraud. After months of protests, the opposition finally agreed to attend parliament. Some analysts believe the current “dialogue” between the ruling party and the opposition is a Machiavellian ploy by Hun Sen to strengthen his power by targeting the constituency that supported the opposition in the last election.

Only in Indonesia has the opposition been able to defeat the ruling party. Jakarta Governor Joko “Jokowi” Widodo won despite lacking ties with the old order represented by the military and cronies of the late strongman Suharto. Jokowi’s victory offers valuable lessons for other rising leaders and opposition forces across the region. His rapid rise up the political ladder is attributed to his innovative leadership as mayor and governor, which endeared him to the youth and middle classes. He also won the support of ordinary Indonesians who were impressed with his modest background. But a year after in power, Jokowi is accused of being beholden to a powerful political patron. His detractors call his leadership weak. Will he survive the machinations of Indonesian politics?

All in all, 2015 is turning out to be a good year for ruling parties in Southeast Asia. Some are plotting to win back voters, others are succeeding in eroding the appeal of rival political forces, and others still are tightening their grip on power. The existence of a genuine opposition is part of any modern democracy. Can Southeast Asia’s opposition parties regain their momentum?

Southeast Asia’s Unlikely Young Dissidents

Written for The Diplomat

The 14 anti-junta protesters in Thailand. The teenager who criticized Singapore’s founding prime minister. The student who heckled the Philippine president during the country’s Independence Day celebration. They are young activists and critics who were penalized for speaking out against their respective governments. This week they walked to freedom. But their struggles are far from over.

Amos Yee is a 16-year-old video blogger from Singapore who posted a video which offended the admirers of the late Lee Kuan Yew. For causing ‘distress’ to many Singaporeans he was charged, arrested, and placed under police custody for 55 days. He was released on July 7.

On the same day, a local court dismissed all cases against student leader Pio Emmanuel Mijares, who was charged for direct assault, tumult and public disturbance after he unfurled a banner denouncing the lack of reforms under the government of Philippine President Benigno Aquino III when the latter was delivering a speech more than a year ago.

Meanwhile, in Thailand, 14 protesters who are mostly university students were allowed to go home on July 8, 12 days after they were arrested for organizing a protest action against the military-backed government of Prayut Chan-o-cha. Protests and the public gathering of five or more people are prohibited in the country where the army grabbed power last year.

Perhaps ‘dissident’ is an inaccurate term to describe these critics. After all, they are neither opposition politicians nor veteran revolutionaries. Yee is clearly just an articulate teenager who is not connected to any political party. But their peaceful protests and the subsequent legal persecution they suffered highlighted the sorry state of political freedom in their own countries. They became icons of free speech even if many of their fellow citizens disagreed with their views and bold actions. By challenging the propaganda of the state, despite the existence of restrictive media laws, they somewhat earned the recognition as dissidents who could inspire others to defy authorities.

Their cases attracted national and even international attention. Yee’s ordeal reminded us once more that Singapore continues to practice media censorship. Mijares’ arrest on Independence Day confirmed the allegation that human rights violations persist in the Philippines. And the recent detention of the 14 Thai protesters embarrassed many institutions which kept quiet when the Thai army refused to restore civilian rule in the country.

These beleaguered activists got a respite this week after winning on some legal issues, but they continue to face several challenges. Yee was forced to take down his ‘offensive’ posts from the Internet and he reportedly made a commitment to refrain from making commentaries with sensitive content. The 14 Thai activists are now free but they will still have to face a military tribunal.

Except for Yee, who didn’t talk to reporters, these young activists vowed to continue with their struggles. Mijares hailed the court decision as a victory for truth and free speech. After attending his hearing, he challenged the Philippine president to focus more on improving the welfare of the youth and poor Filipinos.

Jatupat Boonpatararaksa, one of the 14 Thai protesters, assured his fellow Thais that their group will still fight for the restoration of democracy. “We will not negotiate. We will not compromise. Twelve days in prison has made us stronger. If they want to send us back there, we are ready for it.”

These young activists join other celebrated democracy advocates in the Asia-Pacific like Hong Kong’s Joshua Wong and Alex Chow who represent a new generation of change seekers. They are all brave, idealistic, media savvy, and combative. Despite their teenage status, states treat them as dangerous individuals. Yee was thrown in a facility with adult prisoners. Hong Kong’s Joshua Wong was barred from entering Malaysia.

When the elders are silent or cowed into submission, perhaps it is a good thing that the young take more responsibility in society. Governments should encourage this activist attitude, instead of suppressing the inherent idealism and curiosity of the youth. Indeed, while young people can be swayed by irrational emotions, it is more disturbing if they surrender to apathy and cynicism. Let these young activists have their chance in history to revive the spirit of democracy in their respective countries.

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