Southeast Asia Scales Down on Subsidies

By admin | July 26, 2013

Written for The Diplomat

Several Southeast Asian countries have begun scaling down the subsidies they are providing to key sectors of their economies. Last month, the Thai government confirmed that it will soon decrease the rice price subsidy it gives to farmers. In Indonesia, the parliament approved a revised budget that lowered the fuel subsidy. Meanwhile, in the Philippines’ Transportation and Communications chief advised Metro Manila train commuters to prepare for a fare hike since the government will reduce the subsidy for the mass transit service.

Introduced in 2011 after the electoral victory of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, Thailand’s rice pledging program involved the government’s purchase of local farmers’ rice output at a high price before reselling it on the global market. The program was meant to increase the savings of farmers and boost rural spending. But after two years, the program has already incurred a loss of $4.4 billion and caused Thailand to be overtaken by Vietnam and India, which is now the world’s largest rice exporter.

Meanwhile, Indonesia’s revised budget would raise premium gasoline prices by 44 percent and diesel fuel prices by 22 percent. It is the first fuel price increase since 2008. The government spent 20 billion US dollars on fuel subsidies in 2012 to provide cheap fuel to its people but it also worsened the country’s budget deficit problem.

Every year, the Philippine government spends about 7 billion pesos to subsidize the operation of Metro Manila’s three major railways, making train fares very cheap. Arguing that the big subsidy is no longer sustainable and is unfair to Filipino taxpayers who are not using the train service, the government said it is time to remove the train subsidy and raise ticket prices. The plan is to then use the savings to invest in other vital services.

Subsidy programs may be popular, especially among poor voters, but they are generally disdained and discouraged by economists. Critics of Thailand’s rice buying scheme have pointed out that middlemen and rice traders, and not poor farmers, are the ones benefiting from the subsidy. Likewise, Indonesia’s generous fuel subsidies are reportedly subsidizing the lifestyle of middle-class car owners instead of the basic needs of the working poor.

Subsidies are controversial because people tend to react strongly if they are suddenly removed. Subsidy reductions can ignite mass protests like last year’s violent riots in Indonesia which forced the government to cancel its plan to raise fuel prices. Fortunately, no riots erupted in the streets of Jakarta last month. It seems the government’s pledge to distribute cash handouts to 15 million poor households has appeased consumers. But the social impact of higher fuel prices, especially on inflation in the coming months, could affect the chances of the ruling party in next year’s general elections.

Meanwhile, Thailand’s decision to merely reduce the subsidy price it offers to four million rice farmers, instead of totally scrapping the program, was perhaps meant to serve two functions. The move was likely meant to stabilize its global credit rating on one hand and assure its poor constituents of continued government support on the other.

Anticipating public anger over the planned train fare hikes, the Philippine government has vowed to hold several consultations with affected stakeholders in the coming weeks.

Public debates over the subsidy programs are expected to continue. In Thailand, the government claimed that its rice pledging program has alleviated the debt burden of farmers. Its supporters added that compared to the farm subsidies of developed nations, Thailand’s rice subsidy is lower and more economically viable.

In the Philippines, the government assured the public that the increase in prices would lead to the upgrading and modernization of train operations. But activists warned that the government plan would only jack up the profits of private corporations.

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Does Indonesia’s SBY Deserve the World Statesman Award?

By admin | July 22, 2013

Written for The Diplomat

The first surprise came when the U.S.-based Appeal of Conscience Foundation (ACF) decided to give Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono (aka SBY) the World Statesman Award for promoting religious freedom in his country. The second surprise was when SBY accepted it two weeks ago.

For a group guided by the belief that “a crime committed in the name of religion is the greatest crime against religion,” it is quite a surprise that ACF chose to honor the leader of a country where cases of religious intolerance have risen dramatically over the years. SBY even acknowledged the issue in his acceptance speech.

“Pockets of intolerance persist,” he said. “Communal conflicts occasionally flare up. Religious sensitivities sometimes give rise to disputes, with groups taking matters into their own hands.”

Critics of the award can be classified into two groups. The first are those who think that it’s premature to recognize the efforts of SBY and his government to promote religious harmony in the world’s most populous Muslim nation. The second are those who accuse SBY of deliberately doing nothing to stop the attacks against religious minorities.

Last month, an Ahmadi mosque was attacked in East Java. Further, some Shiites are still living in refugee camps nine months after being driven from their homes in Sampang, also in East Java. Shiite’s and Ahmadiyah are minority Islamic communities in predominantly Sunni Muslim Indonesia.

Meanwhile, in West Java, Protestant congregations of GKI Taman Yasmin and HKBP Filadelfia have been prevented by authorities from holding services in their own churches.

Critics of SBY highlighted a 2006 regulation that made it difficult for minority church groups to build places of worship. SBY also signed a law that recognized only six major religions in the country, thereby discriminating against more than 350 religions with small numbers of followers. In 2008, SBY issued the controversial anti-Ahmadiyah decree, which imposed a jail term of up to five years on anyone who spreads the group’s teachings. In West Java, Governor Ahmad Heryawan passed an order in 2011 that banned Ahmadiyah activities altogether.

In addition, Indonesia continues to implement the 1965 Blasphemy Law to suppress minority religions.

One of the most outspoken critics of the award is Jesuit priest Franz Magnis-Suseno, an Indonesian of German descent, who reminded ACF in an open letter that SBY has reneged on his pledge to protect minority religions in Indonesia. In the letter, he asks: “Do you not know about the growing difficulties of Christians to get permits for opening places of prayer, about the growing number of forced closures of churches, about the growth of regulations that make worshipping for minorities more difficult?”

Perhaps anticipating the protests, in his acceptance speech SBY spoke about the freedom of minority religions to build their worship centers. He reported that Indonesia has 255,000 mosques, 13,000 Hindu temples, 2,000 Buddhist temples, 1,300 Confucian temples, and 61,000 Christian churches – all of which he cited as proof that his government respects religious freedom.

In the speech, he also vowed that his government “will not tolerate any act of senseless violence committed by any group in the name of religion.”

He added: “We will not allow any desecration of places of worship of any religion for whatever reason. We will always protect our minorities and ensure that no one suffers from discrimination. We will make sure that those who violate the rights of others will face the arms of justice.”

But SBY has to do more if he wants to prove the sincerity of his pledges. Even the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, Navi Pillay, has voiced her concern about the growing religious intolerance in Indonesia.

Ultimately, the protest is not exactly about SBY receiving a global award. Nobody complained when he received an honorary doctorate from Singapore’s Nanyang Technological University and the Knight Grand Cross of the Order of Bath award from Britain’s Queen Elizabeth II. These awards, however, were not based on his policies on religion.

By contrast, the ACF statesman award has become a lightning rod for criticism. While Indonesia’s economy may be doing quite nicely under SBY, the promotion of religious freedom is not exactly one of his major achievements.

SBY could prove his critics wrong by decisively ending religious persecution in Indonesia in the last remaining months of his term.

Joseph Estrada’s Political Comeback

Written for The Diplomat

After his unceremonial ouster as Philippine president in 2001, Joseph “Erap” Ejercito Estrada has once again been elected to public office, this time as mayor of Manila, the country’s capital.

Estrada was a popular actor who played Robin Hood-type characters before he entered the world of politics in 1969 when he first served as mayor of his hometown in San Juan, an eastern suburb of Manila. After almost two decades as local chief executive, he gained national prominence when he was elected senator in 1987, vice president in 1992, and then finally president in 1998.

In October 2000, a friend of Estrada revealed that the president was receiving money from illegal gambling operations. Estrada was subsequently impeached by the House of Representatives. While the senate was proceeding with the impeachment trial, numerous tales of Estrada’s luxurious living surfaced in the media, undermining his magnanimous image. Rallies snowballed throughout the country, forcing Estrada to leave the presidential palace on January 19, 2001. His vice president, Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo, replaced him as president of the republic.

Estrada has maintained his innocence and has accused the influential Catholic Church, business groups and the elite of conspiring to unseat him.

After his ouster, he was charged with plunder, a non-bailable offence. He was placed under hospital arrest and then house arrest pending the completion of his trial. He was found guilty in 2007 but Arroyo immediately pardoned him.

Despite his travails, Estrada remained a powerful figure in Philippine politics. When incumbent President Benigno Aquino III first ran as senator in 2007, he sought Estrada’s endorsement. Estrada felt vindicated when his wife and son won senate seats in 2001 and 2004.

Estrada’s credibility and popularity as opposition leader increased when his successor was accused of committing the high crimes of corruption, electoral fraud and human rights violations. Even the late president and democracy leader Cory Aquino publicly apologized to Estrada for supporting his ouster in 2001 because it led to the ascendancy of Arroyo.

In 2010, Estrada garnered more than 9 million votes and placed second in the presidential race, confirming his continuing national popularity. In fact, Estrada won in many urban and rural poor districts. His running mate, Jojo Binay, was elected vice president, while friend and long-time ally Juan Ponce Enrile was elected senate president.

This year Estrada completed his successful comeback by winning the Manila mayoral race. Another son was also elected senator.

During his inaugural speech as mayor, Estrada vowed to restore the glory of old Manila and uplift the conditions of the poor. But he also stirred controversy when he compared himself to other world leaders who had served a prison term.

“For the first time, Manila will have an ex-convict as your city mayor. And I feel I am in good company with Nelson Mandela of South Africa, Anwar Ibrahim of Malaysia, Aung San Suu Kyi of Myanmar and our own Senator Ninoy Aquino who was convicted by a military court. We were all convicted. That is why we are now all men of conviction,” he said.

Naturally, many people disagreed and reminded him that he was jailed for plunder and not for fighting apartheid or military rule. Nonetheless, the comparisons reflect Estrada’s stubborn insistence that he was a victim of persecution by the elite. He appears to be hoping to influence the verdict of history by denying that his ouster represented the will of the majority.

Whether it is appropriate or not for Estrada to align himself with global icons like Mandela and Suu Kyi, nobody will deny that the 76-year-old ex-convict has reemerged as a major political figure in the Philippines.

The Philippines’ other living former presidents, Fidel Ramos and Gloria Arroyo, have already lost whatever political clout they had. Arroyo is in fact facing a plunder case and is currently under hospital arrest. Estrada, on the other hand, continues to be a king and kingmaker in Philippine politics. He has yet to reveal his plans for the 2016 presidential race.

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Haze Exposes ASEAN Failure

By admin | July 13, 2013

Written for The Diplomat

“For what has happened, as President, I say sorry and seek the understanding of our relatives in Singapore and Malaysia.” This was Indonesian President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono apologizing on national television Monday evening, a week after forest fires in Sumatra caused a thick blanket of smog to descend on Singapore and many parts of Malaysia.

“Indonesia had no intention to cause this. And we will continue to bear responsibility to overcome what has happened,” Yudhoyono added.

His apology may be somewhat overdue but at least he said what every suffering citizen in Singapore and Malaysia has been waiting to hear for many days already. Thankfully, Yudhoyono’s apology also superseded the initial reaction of his subordinates who called Singapore childish for complaining too much about the haze.

While it is true that forest fire is a recurring problem in the region, this year’s transboundary haze is worse than in previous years. It is bigger, blacker, thicker, and harder to clear. It caused air pollution indexes to soar to record levels in both Singapore and Malaysia. In fact, a state of emergency has already been declared in Muar and Ledang, both in the southern Malaysian state of Johor. More than one hundred schools have suspended classes.

In Singapore, the wearing of face masks as protection against the haze has become the new normal in the prosperous city state. N5 face masks have become ridiculously expensive and many people have had to wait in line for several hours just to buy them. Workers have been advised to go home, travel has been restricted, and the young and old have remained indoors. The haze is clearly more than a health hazard, which makes the rising frustration and anger of many Singaporeans understandable.

Since the haze involves several countries in Southeast Asia, it is futile to put all blame and responsibility on Indonesia alone. What is needed is a regional intervention; and the only institution capable of fulfilling this crucial task is the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

Resolving transboundary issues is one reason why ASEAN exists. Unfortunately, the current haze disaster reflects the utter failure of ASEAN as a regional grouping.

Indeed, ASEAN initiated various programs to prevent forest fires and transboundary haze pollution as early as the 1980s. Regional workshops have been held annually since 1992. The 1997 haze, which badly affected the region, forced ASEAN to draft the Regional Haze Action Plan. It has three components: prevention, mitigation, and monitoring. Curiously, it assigned Malaysia to take the lead in prevention, Indonesia in mitigation, and Singapore in monitoring of haze – the three countries that are currently suffering.

In 1999, ASEAN adopted a “zero burning” policy targeted at plantation companies and timber concessionaires. Further, it enjoined member countries to develop and promote controlled burning guidelines for small farmers and cultivators. In 2002, the landmark ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution was signed by the ten member countries.

In the past decade, ASEAN has spearheaded numerous activities to fight the haze scourge, which ranged from community level fire-fighting programs to high-level task force meetings of country ministers. Last October 2012, it even recognized the “substantive efforts” of Indonesia to prevent forest fires in the districts of Riau and West Kalimantan.

Clearly, ASEAN has done many things and used a lot of money to stop the dreaded haze, yet all have been ineffective. The haze has continued to return and worsen year after year.

Today there are demands for an ASEAN intervention to address the haze pollution. Indeed, ASEAN should act quickly but it should stop repeating what it has been doing for the past two decades. Albert Einstein purportedly once quipped that insanity is “doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.”

Instead of organizing another meeting, workshop, or conference, ASEAN should simply review its records, implement the action plan, enforce the anti-haze agreement, and punish companies that violate environment laws.

For Malaysian politician Charles Santiago, the option is clear for his country: “Keep a close watch on Malaysian companies in Sumatra and charge those that flout laws, for these companies have committed nothing less than a crime against humanity.”

Dengue Scare Sweeps Southeast Asia

Written for The Diplomat

Dengue cases have been rising dramatically in several Southeast Asian countries recently. Dengue (aka dengue fever) is a tropical virus with no known cure that is carried by the Aedes aegypti mosquito. It attacks most often in densely populated urban areas.

Singapore registered only 4,632 dengue cases in 2012 but this year the number has already hit 10,257 and continues to rise daily. This is unusually high for Singapore, which last experienced a dengue outbreak in 2005.

Last week, Thailand’s Ministry of Public Health confirmed that dengue cases are three times higher this year than last year. In the past six months, the kingdom has recorded 43,609 cases of dengue fever, with 50 resulting in death. There were only five dengue-related deaths in 2012. Thailand experienced dengue epidemics most recently in 1987 and 1998.

Meanwhile, dengue cases in the Philippines and Malaysia are slightly lower this year compared to the same period in 2012, but the situation nonetheless remains critical. The Philippines’ Department of Health reported 42,207 dengue cases, which is actually one of the highest figures in the region. Malaysia recorded 10,352 dengue cases in the past six months.

According to a recent survey, there are 123,206 dengue patients in six Southeast Asian countries. Alarmed by this creeping pandemic, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) marked June 15 as ASEAN Dengue Day to promote awareness and prevent the spread of the dreaded virus in the region.

Alongside raising awareness, Southeast Asian governments have implemented various programs to fight dengue. Singapore’s National Environment Agency has launched a “Do the Mozzie Wipeout” campaign, a community effort meant to remind citizens of easy and practical steps to disrupt the breeding cycle of the Aedes mosquito. The government also plans to distribute 1.2 million bottles of insecticide to all households next month.

For its part, the Thai government is in the process of establishing a dengue fever “war room” in every province to monitor dengue outbreak on the community level. To date, however, only 26 of Thailand’s 77 provinces have set one up.

The Philippines is promoting a similar community-driven program called Aksyon Barangay Kontra Dengue, which encourages Filipinos to join in the daily “4 o’clock habit” of dropping everything at 4 pm to look for dengue hotspots in homes.

Meanwhile, Malaysia has developed a GIS-based web portal called I-Dengue, which provides updated data on dengue clusters and other useful information such as how to avoid getting the virus.

Because of changing climate patterns and the inevitable rise of mega cities, the dengue virus will continue to terrorize many tropical nations. If left unchecked, it could lead to bigger outbreaks that governments may not be able to adequately handle.

Perhaps the intensified public information drive will wake everyone up to the seriousness of the dengue problem, The virus is one of many deadly communicable diseases in the Asia-Pacific.

Meanwhile, the ongoing dengue outbreak should remind governments to review their development programs. In particular, they should address the challenges posed by rapid urbanization. The epidemic should also prompt officials to improve the region’s health care delivery and the treatment of dengue patients.

In Singapore, netizens were outraged to learn that a dengue victim who died was made to wait five hours in a hospital. It led to the scrutiny of Singapore’s health care system, which some have criticized for being more responsive to the needs of the medical tourism sector than to its own citizens.

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The Spokesman as Politician

By admin | July 7, 2013

Which is worse: The politician liar, or the spokesperson who willingly and even gleefully lies for him?

In the age of hyper communications, the politician must be an expert communicator. But if he has problematic communication skills, the next best thing is to hire a butt double, oops, I mean a spokesperson.

The spokesperson must accurately and clearly articulate the views of his boss. He must deliver memorable sound bites to gain good media coverage, throw some deadly sarcasm aimed against political enemies, exaggerate the accomplishments of his principal, and address a controversy through doublespeak.

Spreading the truth is not the job of a spokesperson. After all, he is not a preacher. Truth is merely a bonus, an afterthought, since his primary goal is to protect the political career of his employer. He is effective if he is able to hide the insidious manipulation of information, or the sleazy re-packaging of half-truths and untruths as relevant public information. The people must never notice the poisonous spin concocted by PR rasputins.

To compensate for his deficiencies, an old trapo often hires a young, intelligent, good looking, and charismatic spokesperson. To handle the press, a media personality is recruited which exposes the incestuous link of corporate media and politics. Meanwhile, the dizzying almost mad exchange of information in the mediascape necessitates the appointment of several talking heads which leads to more confusion and truthwashing.

The spokesperson is a minion, a despicable minion. He tries to purify a misdeed through the magic of the spoken word. But in order to appear credible, he must believe his own deceitful words. Trapped in the web of lies, he speaks like an automaton. The will of the Master overwhelms him; he learns to ignore the value of ethics, conscience, honor, and empathy.

But the spokesperson is able to rationalize this behavior by viewing it as a necessary evil to pursue the cause of the greater common good. Or perhaps the spokesperson felt no legal and moral responsibility to defend his actions since he believes he was merely following the orders of his superior.

He is an unelected public figure who speaks and acts like a King but luckily escapes prosecution when his King is dethroned.

As chairman of the Commission on Elections, Benjamin Abalos was publicly defended by his spokesperson. But after his fall from power and when the people demanded accountability for the ‘Hello Garci’ and Maguindanao 12-0 scandals, among others, Abalos found himself being indicted by the same spokesperson in a TV program. His former accomplice in deodorizing the dirty reputation of Comelec is already carrying out the political agenda of a new superior.

But a spokesperson is not an innocent messenger. He is not a naive loudspeaker and underling in the bureaucracy since his work is crucial in ushering the rise of the Good or Bad side of politics. He distracts and entertains the public so that politicians and their other paid intellectual hooligans are free to implement their nefarious political plans.

Some spokespersons are eventually elected into public office. Others are rewarded either financially or by getting a lucrative post in the civil service or foreign service. Many have remained loyal to their employers and politicians who appointed them.

There are spokespersons who started out as idealists and promising young leaders of the country. What happened to them? Why did they abandon their ideals in favor of shallow intangibles like privilege and instant fame? They simply mutated into hateful political creatures after being overexposed to the netherworld of politics.

Indeed, they wielded influence, they walked in the corridors and meeting rooms of power, and they became the authoritative voice of mainstream politics. Unfortunately, they equated these with public service when they were simply the glorified propagandists of elite rule. Political propagandists who were overpaid, oversexed, and over there.

Corrupted by power and blinded by hubris, the idealist-turned spokesperson has become a tragic figure.

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Interview on Sabah, Taiwan, GDP

By admin | July 4, 2013

The Diplomat’s Jonathan DeHart spoke with Filipino activist, legislator and writer Raymond “Mong” Palatino about his country’s recent spat with Taiwan, the Sabah turmoil, and the Philippines’ impressive economic growth.

The Philippines has been through a lot politically and diplomatically these past few months, starting with the turmoil in Sabah and most recently in the spat with Taiwan. Now that the Taiwan-Philippine incident has played out, why do you think it became so heated? Further, how do you think the Philippine government handled it in the end?

The Malaysia and Taiwan crisis overwhelmed many people, including officials of the Aquino government. If the diplomatic row had involved China, I think it would have been less shocking to many Filipinos who are already used to our government exchanging heated words with Chinese officials over maritime disputes.

But people are not as used to such disputes happening with Malaysia – which recently facilitated successful peace negotiations between the Philippine government and Muslim separatist rebels in south Mindanao – or with Taiwan, which has maintained good relations with the Philippines despite the latter’s adoption of a One-China policy.

The Aquino government could have done more to quickly ease the tension. For instance, a formal apology should have been given much earlier to Taiwan. Remember how Taiwan rejected the first apology sent by Manila because it felt it was insincere.

I expect a fishing agreement to be finalized soon between the Philippines and Taiwan to prevent a repeat of the tragedy in Balintang Channel.

You wrote an article in The Diplomat in May titled “Panic in the Philippines Over Taiwan Diplomatic Crisis”, which generated heated discussion. What would you say to critics of your position in the article? Looking back now, do you think there was a sense of “panic” among ordinary Filipinos as the crisis escalated?

News about Taiwan’s decision to stop hiring Filipino workers and the harassment allegedly suffered by Filipino migrants in Taiwan was widely disseminated in the Philippine media. These stories affected how Filipinos came to understand the seriousness of the diplomatic crisis with Taiwan.

The crisis became more real for Filipinos who became really worried about the well-being of their friends and relatives working and living in Taiwan. For Filipinos who desire to work or do business in Taiwan, they were naturally distressed as well about their livelihood. Even the local tourism industry is reeling from the sudden cancellation of holiday bookings by Taiwanese tourists who are among the country’s top visitors.

For government officials, they have reason to panic over their apparent failure to fix the diplomatic mess since it could make things harder for the 80,000 Filipinos residing in Taiwan. They know there are no adequate domestic jobs that could accommodate Filipinos who might be forced to go home if the crisis escalated further.

This was the panic I was referring to in the article published in The Diplomat. I specifically emphasized that the military drills conducted by Taiwan near the Philippines didn’t bother many since most Filipinos are more alarmed over the economic threats issued by the Taiwanese government.

Before the incident with Taiwan, Manila was working through an equally complex diplomatic issue with Malaysia when the so-called “Sultan of Sulu” invaded the Malaysian state of Sabah. Looking back at the incident, do you see any longer term consequences from the event? And what are ordinary Filipinos saying about it now?

The Sabah tension was more complicated. Many Filipinos continue to regard Sabah as part of our territory. The so-called “terrorists” who “invaded” Lahad Datu are Filipino citizens. Jamalul Kiram III is recognized by many Filipinos as the legitimate Sultan of Sulu. Aquino feigned ignorance by simply announcing the formation of a study group to review our historic Sabah claim.

Instead of assuring Kiram and his followers that he is ready to assist them, Aquino nonchalantly advised them to go home. For those who believe that Sabah is part of the Philippines, and especially for the people of Sulu who think of Sabah as part of their ancestral domain, that piece of advice smacks of insensitivity.

At the time, there was a general sense of utter disbelief among Filipinos. We were obviously shocked by the Lahad Datu invasion and the shooting incident involving our coast guard and a Taiwanese fishing boat; yet we also felt powerless and many were clueless about how to resolve the situations, especially the Sabah incident. There was no sustained public discussion of the issues since the attention of the greater number of Filipinos was focused on the midterm senate and local elections.

Looking back, it was quite disappointing that the Sabah issue didn’t matter at all in the three-month election debates which started in February. No candidate or party raised the issue of Sabah to the electorate. Meanwhile, the Taiwan crisis exploded right after voting last month, which partly explained why it took some time for Filipinos to properly react to the issue.

Unfortunately for the Philippines, I think the Sabah incident has further derailed its bid to successfully reclaim Sabah. Accused of committing a terrorist act, Kiram has lost considerable political clout. Aquino has shown no interest in the Sabah claim and I think he will maintain this indifference. He can always argue that his government is still reviewing the documents pertaining to the Sabah issue.

The Philippines has recently experienced rapid GDP growth – the fastest it’s been in three years. What do you attribute this to, and do you think it’s sustainable? Further, what do you think the biggest benefits from this growth will be?

Curiously, former President Gloria Arroyo often bragged about the country’s strong economic fundamentals. It seems to be the one legacy she bequeathed to her successor. But then and now, so-called GDP strength has not benefited the poor. Or at least its benefits have yet to make a huge positive impact in the lives of many. The economic growth has not produced enough jobs and poverty rates have worsened in some urban areas. In short, the purported growth is too “hollow, shallow, and narrow.”

The growth is often attributed to the remittances sent by 10 million overseas Filipinos, which drive domestic consumption spending. However, it also means that the country is losing the best and brightest of its skilled workers. The hidden social costs of emigration should also be taken into consideration.

Business confidence seems to be improving, which the Aquino government claims is due to the reforms it has implemented in the last three years. But the bigger challenge is not just to entice more investors but to make economic growth inclusive. Instead of continuing the economic policies initiated by past governments, Aquino should present a new blueprint for progress. Something that doesn’t just involve the exporting of people, the anarchic plunder of natural resources, and the creation of artificial wealth through the entry of speculative capital into the local stock market.

How are young Filipinos responding to these regional diplomatic challenges? And are they embracing and capitalizing on the economic opportunities that come with the nation’s economic growth?

Again, the story of the strong GDP is not new. In fact, as just mentioned, it is one of the supposed achievements of the unpopular Arroyo government. Young people today can only sense a disconnect between what is being reported in media and the actual everyday situation for ordinary Filipinos.

The number of unemployed youth is soaring, including the college educated. Nothing much has changed the belief commonly held by young Filipinos that the best way to achieve their dreams is to emigrate.

Admittedly, the optimism that swept the nation after Aquino’s victory in 2010 is still there. But Aquino cannot sustain this optimism just by delivering good news to the people. The goods must be delivered soon or else this optimism could turn into frustration, which could affect the electoral chances of Aquino’s party in 2016.

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Dear Neophyte

By admin | July 1, 2013

As I write this, there seems to be frantic race in Batasan to file the first set of bills in the 16th Congress. It’s a futile effort since the date of filing has no bearing in the calendaring of measures dictated by the powerful Rules Committee. Furthermore, being an early porker or early bird doesn’t guarantee the passage of a bill into law. During the 15th Congress, Ilocos Sur Rep. Ronald Singson beat everybody by being the first to submit his priority measures into the House records. However, this symbolic feat proved useless because he resigned anyway.

Despite the inconsequentiality of the act, many staffers were still forced by their principals to join the pre-SONA mad rush in Batasan. This is Congress, an institution obsessed with substanceless rituals and meaningless political gestures. Perhaps these are aggressively pursued to make people forget the open secret that Congress is a place infested with lazy politicians.

Indeed, the Batasan plenary is an underused government facility since Congress sessions are few and quorum is seldom achieved. It seems congressmen like to attend happy hours instead of session hours. In fact, many of them prefer to do business in the lounge, they bully civil servants outside the committee meeting rooms, and they spend more time and resources deodorizing their public image.

During my first term, a young dynast chided my neophyte behavior of reading the House Journals and Order of Business in the plenary hall. He said he was like me during his first year in office but eventually turned cynical after he realized that the Congress agenda is already pre-determined by the same cabal that controls the Palace.

Indeed, Congress has always been subservient to Malacanang. It is a Marcos legacy which proved useful to post-Edsa administrations. The live plenary session is actually just a show, a necessary spectacle to establish the fiction of an independent Congress.

The Presidential Legislative Liaison Office is literally behind the plenary session hall which enforces Palace directives in Congress. Its office is even closer to the plenary compared to the Speaker’s office at the second floor. Politician minions wanting to be close to the Big Boss perform snitching jobs in behalf of the PLLO. They are often dispatched to warn recalcitrant colleagues that if they want unimpeded access to Malacanang funds, it demands total acquiescence on their part at all times.

Diverse and even eccentric views are tolerated but dissenting views are censored and punished. There is plurality of perspectives as long as the final vote tally is assured in favor of the Palace agenda. No issue can be tackled without first securing the votes needed to win the debate.

Through this tactic, Congress remains a conservative institution immune from radical viewpoints. It seeks to redirect the attention of independent thinkers to bureaucratic and parochial issues; it blocks activist initiatives, it castrates the radical threat, and advances the elitist agenda through the use of elegant and enigmatic legalese. In other words, there is no turning to the Left in Congress. It is always on the Right and for the Right, even if it is not often the right and reasonable thing to do.

But the appeal of the Reactionary Right is practically difficult to ignore. It names itself as the truth of the present and this is loudly and widely echoed by the corporate-controlled press. In addition, it has at its disposal the whole knowledge-producing machinery of society. A politician can therefore easily and conveniently rationalize his decision to stick to the Right. He can dish out superficial statements and get rave reviews from the Establishment.

On the other hand, a politician who attacks the shaky grounds of consensus will be vilified. He who name things for what they really are, he who exposes the naked king, he who heralds the rise of the new will be dismissed as an odd political creature.

To escape the wrath of the gods, some reformists came close to collaboration by renouncing militancy in favor of compromise. They still speak the language of reform but they do so in order to make pure evil less evil in the eyes of the public. They willingly and shamelessly accept the trapo framework of addressing social issues: discuss the problem (even thoroughly) but the solution must not disrupt the core of the system. From time to time, I’m impressed with their progressive standpoint on some issues. But most of the time, they are simply former warriors who already succumbed to the dark side of the force. Tragic.

No person can enter and leave the glorified squalor without being scarred. A person can’t simply witness so many horrible deeds and continue to live without being affected by them. There are no survivors, even the activists who stubbornly clinged to their beliefs. They who went inside the dragon’s lair but failed to slay the beast.

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Radicalism, reformism

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Singapore Tightens Grip on News Websites

By admin | June 26, 2013

Written for The Diplomat

Singapore’s new licensing scheme for news websites has ignited a flurry of criticism from netizens, press freedom advocates, and human rights groups, who have quickly denounced it as a draconian censorship measure.

On May 28, the Media Development Authority (MDA) announced that news websites reporting on Singapore that receive at least 50,000 views from unique IP addresses per month must secure a license. Further, according to a media statement, they must “put up a ‘performance bond’ of $50,000 and ‘comply within 24 hours to MDA’s directions to remove content that is found to be in breach of content standards’.”

So far, the government has identified ten websites, including Yahoo! Singapore, which are covered by the ruling. Besides Yahoo, all websites listed by the MDA are partly government owned.

Although the license is purportedly limited to mainstream news websites, some netizens who have initiated a petition against it worry that the vague wording in the new ruling “leaves the door open for blogs or any other site to be forced to license in the future without any change in the law.”

Singapore’s leading sociopolitical bloggers and commentators have also warned about the possible impact of the regulation “on fellow Singaporeans’ ability to receive diverse news information.”

An article in The Online Citizen added: “The new licensing regime has the very real potential to reduce the channels available to Singaporeans to receive news and analysis of the sociopolitical situation in Singapore and it is in the interest of all Singaporeans to guard against the erosion and availability of news channels that Singaporeans should rightfully have access to.”

For Siew Kum Hong, who once served as counsel for Yahoo in Singapore, the new regulation is a mistake since it “reinforces the perception that Singapore is a repressive place — which is precisely the wrong message to be sending to a globalised and networked world, when you are trying to build an innovative and creative economy where freedom of thought is so essential.”

Responding to the uproar online, the MDA assured the public that the license scheme is actually fair and will not undermine internet freedom. It reiterated that blogs are exempted from the regulation: “An individual publishing views on current affairs and trends on his/her personal website or blog does not amount to news reporting.”

In addition, it clarified that the content take-down clause revolves around “core content concerns that would threaten the social fabric and national interests of our country.” The MDA added, “Examples include content that incites racial or religious hatred; misleads and causes mass panic; or advocates or promotes violence.”

Despite the MDA’s assurances, netizens remain unconvinced. A movement called “Free My Internet” has been organized specifically to push for the withdrawal of the license scheme, which has already been successfully annexed by the MDA as a subsidiary legislation. Critics have also called for a public gathering at Hong Lim Park this Saturday to pressure the MDA and parliament to scrap the measure.

For unifying Singapore’s often divided netizens and inspiring a rare democratic protest, perhaps the MDA should be commended for issuing a controversial ruling.

Vietnam: Bloggers Arrested, Accused of Spreading “Anti-State” Propaganda

First published by Global Voices Advocacy

Truong Duy Nhat, Pham Viet Dao and Dinh Nhat Uy are three prominent bloggers who have been arrested in Vietnam in less than a month’s time. All are accused of spreading anti-state propaganda.

Truong Duy Nhat was arrested May 26 in Danang. Pham Viet Dao was detained in Hanoi on June 13. On June 15, Dinh Nhat Uy was taken into police custody in Long An province.

Vietnam has imprisoned 46 bloggers and democracy activists in 2013. The high number of arrests of hardline government critics or individuals that the government sees as “enemies of the state” could be related to the recently concluded confidence vote in the National Assembly.

The Prime Minister survived the country’s first-ever confidence vote but 30 percent of the National Assembly members voted against him.

Human rights groups and press freedom advocates immediately denounced the arrests. Many suspect that authorities are working to silence activists and dissident journalists who have been actively exposing corruption scandals involving top government officials.

Reporters without Borders warned that Vietnam could expect a global backlash if persecution of news providers is to continue:

We warn the authorities against any increase in the persecution of news providers. After the European Parliament’s recent resolutions condemning Vietnam’s arrests of bloggers and the international community’s calls for more freedom of information and expression in Vietnam, it should be clear that maintaining the policy of terror against bloggers and cyber-dissidents will only sideline the country internationally, including within intergovernmental mechanisms.

The abuses suffered by bloggers highlight the need to review some of the laws which the government of Vietnam has been using to silence its critics.

Article 88 of the Criminal Code which bans anti-state propaganda is often used to detain individuals who oppose the government. Article 258 of the Criminal Code punishes misuse of “democratic freedoms to attack state interests and the legitimate rights and interests of collectives and individuals” and carries a sentence of seven years in prison. The Prime Minister also issued a directive last year that ordered a crackdown on “reactionary” blogs.

Vague provisions in the law have allowed authorities to make some arbitrary arrests. For example, Dinh Nhat Uy is accused of posting “erroneous and slanderous” information about the communist government. Further, he allegedly posted photos and articles on his blog that “distort the truth and defame state organizations.”

A month ago, blogger Nguyen Ngoc Nhu Quynh—who blogs as Me Nam (Mother Mushroom)–was briefly detained in Khanh Hoa province for handing out copies of the United Nations’ Universal Declaration of Human Rights. She was reportedly arrested because she did not have a proper permit for distributing such materials.

Truong Duy Nhat, who blogs at “Another Viewpoint”, asserted that he is neither a criminal nor a reactionary:

I am neither a criminal nor a reactionary. There is nothing propagandistic or reactionary about the articles I post on ‘Another point of view.’ The police investigations, summonses and interrogations should be targeting reactionaries, anti-patriots and the interest groups gathering in banks, these insects who devour the people.

Regardless of their political opinions or critiques of the government, bloggers’ universal human right to freedom of expression should be upheld in Vietnam. Global Voices Advocacy will continue to follow these stories as they unfold.

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Blackouts, Politics, Conspiracies

By admin | June 23, 2013

Written for The Diplomat

Massive blackouts have hit several Southeast Asian countries in the past month, causing widespread panic, business losses, and even political controversy.

On May 8, a sudden outage in five power plants in the Philippines plunged 40 percent of Luzon Island into darkness, including Metropolitan Manila. Meanwhile, on May 21, mysterious lightning allegedly affected power transmission in Thailand, triggering the kingdom’s “biggest blackout ever” in its 14 southern provinces.

The following day, a crane error knocked out a major transmission line in Vietnam, immediately causing a ten-hour blackout across 22 provinces in the nation’s south. Affected cities included Vietnam’s southern commercial hub, Ho Chi Minh City, and Phnom Penh in neighboring Cambodia.

Three weeks after the Luzon blackout, Philippine energy officials admitted that they are still clueless as to what caused the power plants to malfunction. But at least they clarified that a total of 14 plants conked out during the unforgettable day of darkness.

Meanwhile, the Thai blackout inconvenienced eight million residents and was the country’s worst power interruption in 30 years. According to the Federation of Thai Industries, the resultant economic damage could reach 10 billion baht.

In Vietnam, the blackout affected a third of the country and was said to be the first large-scale power breakdown in 100 years. Cambodia suffered, too, because its power supply is partly provided by Vietnam.

Even if these blackouts were not connected to each other, they remind us that in the age of tablets and smartphones, governments that fail to deliver an uninterrupted power supply will quickly find themselves bombarded by angry comments from even the most apolitical of citizens – especially netizens. Further, politicians must answer not only persistent questions about the causes of blackouts; they must also debunk conspiracy theories – especially those that seem credible.

In the case of the Philippines, the power went off just a few days before the scheduled midterm polls, which led some to suspect that that unusual blackout could be a rehearsal to stage systematic electoral fraud. Indeed, power interruptions were reported on election day, but they seem to have been isolated cases.

Meanwhile, in Thailand, the blackout was concentrated in the south where Muslim rebels have been waging an armed insurgency since 2004. This fact prompted many residents to fear that the power outage could have been a prelude to an intense military attack. Soldiers were dispatched to assuage the public’s fear.

Some academics have taken another view, asserting that the blackout was a ploy by the government meant to influence public opinion in favor of building coal power plants in areas where there is strong community resistance to such projects. In the aftermath of the blackout, public opinion favors the resignation of the energy minister.

The blackouts, accidental or not, were too big to ignore and these should force Southeast Asian governments to review their power infrastructure. It is interesting that during the Luzon blackout, the proposal to use the Philippines’ mothballed nuclear plant was revived, triggering a lively debate about the advantages of harnessing the country’s renewable energy potential.

Finally, Cambodia must brainstorm other ways to generate power since it was already experiencing severe power cuts in recent months. The government needs to think of a fast solution before “powerless” citizens take to the streets and demand reliable electricity.

Officials in Phnom Penh – and the whole region for that matter – should learn from the experience of Burma, where protests arose in its major cities during a power shortage crisis exactly a year ago.

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Adventure Time

By admin | June 20, 2013

For a few minutes, I was King of Marinduque. It was in 2011 during a graduation event in Boac when province elders led by Governor Carmencita Reyes welcomed me by holding a putong ceremony. According to my lolo, one branch of the Palatino clan migrated and settled in south Marinduque.

After traversing a ‘river highway’ for three hours, we arrived in Upper Suyan in Malapatan, Sarangani. Our goal was to deliver medical and food supplies in a heavy militarized school. The village chief was close to tears when he told me that I was the first member of Congress, and the highest official of the land who visited their place. It was my turn to be teary-eyed.

In Olongapo, graduating high school students honored me by holding letter placards that bear my full name with each letter representing something about me.

Closer to home, students of Immaculate Conception Academy in San Juan gave me a very memorable gift for speaking about the 1986 Edsa revolt: an illustration board filled with personalized post-it messages.

I was joined by my family in Aurora when I was Baler’s guest speaker during its 403rd founding anniversary. Baler is a remote town in eastern Luzon rich in history and natural wonders.

After attending a public hearing on Dangerous Drugs in Pagadian, I joined some PDEA officials who organized a short tour around the lovely waters of Lakewood.

Manny Pacquiao is a Glanian but Glan’s most prized asset is its powdery white sand beaches. There, I came to realize the valuable role of small private schools in providing basic education in the rural areas.

From Bondoc to Tadian, we reached the tri-boundary of Mountain Province, Abra, and Ilocos Sur. On the road, we saw Mount ‘Clitoris’. A few weeks after that, I was able to swim in the cool waters of Suso Beach in Ilocos. Another amazing road trip is our long drive from Pagadian to Dipolog.

Thank you Mayor Hagedorn for hosting a dinner-cultural reception in Puerto Princesa. Thank you UP Diliman for including me in your freshman welcome video. To my friend Divs from Culasi, Antique for the fun itinerary. To PASUC (national alliance of state universities) and SK for our joint advocacies. Hello to my kumpare, Mayor JJ of Santa, Ilocos Sur. Pahinging Ipon fish.

My first graduation speech was in Siok, Koronadal. Meanwhile, I truly appreciate the invitation of St Mary’s, my elementary alma mater, to speak in their graduation event last year.

Some memorable flag ceremony activities in Commonwealth High, Ramon Magsaysay Espana, Bagong Barrio in Caloocan, Manila Science and Earist High. There are almost 300 members of the House of Representatives and I was privileged to be invited as guest speaker in the monthly flag ceremony event last November.

I talked about social media activism at the MIMAROPA IT Congress in Calapan and at the Visayas Blogging Summit in Cebu. I discussed the state of public education at the main campus of Don Honorio Ventura Technological University in Pampanga, Rizal Technological Univeristy, Cotabato State Polytechnic College, and in three campuses of Isabela State University. I signed a pledge for peace at an NSTP event in the field grounds of Mall of Asia. We organized a State of the Youth Address attended by SK leaders of Cavite and Laguna.

I discussed the impeachment trial to students of Roxas High and community leaders of Old Balara in Quezon City. I gave an inspirational talk to the youth of Pampanga at the Marque Mall. We joined Councilor (and now Congressman-elect) Alfred Vargas during the launching of Pinoylimpics, a celebration of Philippine Games, in SM Novaliches. For two years, we were entertained by ABS-CBN stars during their Christmas Special at the Araneta Center.

I joined the ribbon cutting ceremonies when we opened a classroom in Banga, South Cotabato; a youth center in Angeles, Pampanga; and a library in Mauban, Quezon.

I was one of the guests of Iloilo in their Dinagyang Festival. I also joined the celebration of the Cauayan Festival in Negros.

I was a resource person of the Baguio City Council in our opposition to the planned treeballing (read: cutting) of pine trees in SM City. Together with Davao City local officials, we conducted a consultation with nursing students about OJT fees. I also testified in the Senate about the skyrocketing, unregulated school fees.

Just recently, I was stunned by the beauty of Surigao del Sur’s ‘enchanted river’. Truly enchanting, mesmerizing. From the vantage point of the DOLE Kalsangi Clubhouse in Polomolok, I was overwhelmed by the majestic fields at the foot of Mt. Matutum. For the first time, I was able to visit Boracay’s fabled Punta Bunga Beach last February. Another must-see white sand resort is Initao, Misamis Oriental.

I attended the International AIDS Conference in Vienna in 2010. I played football in London as a sideline event in a gathering of young leaders from Europe and Asia. I got the chance to go inside the Blue Mosque and Hagia Sophia in Istanbul. I finally met Joma Sison in Utrecht.

I got lost in the subways of New York after speaking in the congress of the National Alliance for Filipino Concerns in New Jersey. In Los Angeles, I spoke about internet human rights in an Amnesty International event. In San Francisco, I talked about internet governance in a summit organized by activists and tech giants like Facebook and Google.

Global Voices authors met in Nairobi, Kenya. I discussed the country’s human rights situation in Hong Kong. Indeed, I was able to confirm for several times why Bangkok is an ideal venue to organize an international meeting. But if it is flooded, try Krabi.

Go treeplanting in the watershed of Boso-Boso, Rizal. Or a coastal cleanup in the Freedom Island of Manila Bay in Las Pinas-Paranaque. A power lunch meeting in Bohol’s Loboc River cruise. Enjoy coffee and the refreshing air of Banaue, Ifugao.

I was inspired by the brave stand of Odiongan people in opposing the entry of a mining company in Tablas Island in Romblon. I witnessed the church-labor dialogue in Cebu. I spent a night in a ‘liberated’ farming commune in Escalante City, Negros Occidental.

Philippine airport terminals are cold, dilapidated, dangerous buildings but somehow these eyesores are briefly ignored if you are in the company of friendly strangers. Travelling to unknown destinations is risky but I never experienced harm or felt threatened since I am joined by comrades and old friends in these trips. Besides, I am always distracted either by the breathtaking scenery or the gastronomic delight in front of me which gave me little or no time at all to worry about scary things like security preparation, natural disasters, and trapo monologues.

These are my official and semi-official trips as activist and legislator. As a blogger, I already wrote about some of them. There are more stories to tell in the future.

Years from now, I will share these adventures with my children. I will tell them that my fondest memories as a congressman were made outside the gates of hell…oops, Batasan. Of course I will entertain them with some juicy tales about the private lives of famous politicians but I prefer that they learn more from the heroic lives of ordinary Filipinos. Indeed, I met so many interesting and intelligent people in my travels. Most of them are simple folks who have insightful things to say about the state of affairs and the reforms that need to be undertaken in our society. They are new acquaintances who opened their houses to me, local leaders who willingly escorted and guided me in their hometowns, and young people who put their confidence in me and my party. It’s sad that I never saw many of them again because I’d like to thank them for being part of my journey. Their smile, their kindness, their wisdom will never be forgotten as I embark on my next adventure in life.

Related articles:

Local and foreign trips in 2009
Local campaigning in 2007

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Thai Politics According to Yingluck Shinawatra

By admin | June 15, 2013

It was the speech everybody had been waiting two years to hear, but few in the international community immediately recognized it.

Last month, Thailand Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra traveled to the 7th Ministerial Conference of the Community of Democracies in Mongolia where she discussed the importance of democracy, good governance, and her perspectives on Thailand’s turbulent politics over the past decade. In particular, she defended her brother Thaksin Shinawatra, who was Thailand’s Prime Minister until being deposed by a coup in 2006.

The speech generated an intense domestic reaction, with Opposition personalities calling Yingluck a liar. As expected, netizens actively shared their views as well, but it was Thai Rath cartoonist Chai Rachawat who posted the most controversial remark by uploading a photo of Yingluck with this caption on Facebook: “Please understand that prostitutes are not bad women. Prostitutes only sell their bodies, but a bad woman has been wandering around trying to sell the country.”

Rachawat was quickly and widely criticized for insulting women and for portraying Yingluck as evil. In response, he claimed in a Bangkok Post interview that he did not insult anyone.

“What I meant was prostitutes are not evil because they sell themselves, not the nation,” he said. “However, a woman who sells the nation is evil. I did not label the prime minister as a prostitute.”

Despite this clarification, Yingluck still instructed her lawyers to sue Chai for defamation. In addition, Chai was charged with violating the Computer Crimes Act. This is the first time in Thailand that a prime minister has sued a citizen for leaving a comment on social media. It is common in Thailand to penalize netizens who insult the Royal Family, but not those who offend government officials.

Rachawat’s case has since become a cause célèbre involving media freedom and Internet rights. Human rights watchdogs noted that Chai was sued on World Press Freedom Day.

The perceived persecution of Chai seems to have emboldened Opposition groups to mobilize against Yingluck’s government. Out of nowhere, a so-called Thai Spring movement has emerged, urging citizens to express their frustration against Yingluck by signing an online petition.

This brings us back to the original issue: Yingluck’s controversial speech. So what exactly did Yingluck say that provoked Chai and others to insult her? For a start, maybe her kind words for brother Thaksin did not sit well with those who see him as an abusive and corrupt leader.

“An elected government which won two elections with a majority was overthrown in 2006,” she said in Mongolia. “Thailand lost track and the people spent almost a decade to regain their democratic freedom.”

She continued, “Thailand suffered a setback and lost international credibility. Rule of law in the country was destroyed… The people felt their rights and liberties were wrongly taken away.”

Further, her criticism of Thailand’s Constitution and political system probably angered some factions of the ruling elite:

“It is clear that elements of anti-democratic regime still exist. The new constitution, drafted under the coup leaders led government, put in mechanisms to restrict democracy,” she said. “A good example of this is that half of the Thai Senate is elected, but the other half is appointed by a small group of people. In addition, the so called independent agencies have abused the power that should belong to the people, for the benefit of the few rather than to the Thai society at large.”

Curiously, Yingluck cited the Arab Spring and the ongoing transition in Myanmar as examples of democratic movements. She also credited “people power” for her electoral victory. But these two points were overshadowed by Yingluck’s strong words against the Opposition.

On another level, perhaps the speech was controversial because it was the first time that Yingluck has clearly articulated her stance on divisive issues like Thaksin, the 2006 coup, the violent crackdown on the Red Shirts in 2010, and constitutional reform.

For some analysts, the speech revealed the true Yingluck. For critics, it exposed her as a mere puppet of her brother, who is living in exile outside Thailand. Yingluck may have spoken in Ulan Bator last month but perhaps her real target audience was her constituents, including enemies, in Bangkok.

No doubt, this speech will be remembered for a long time and it will be used by various political factions to advance their agendas. For better or worse, Thai politics has been energized by Yingluck’s speech.

Written for The Diplomat

On the Taiwan Diplomatic Crisis

If news reports correctly reflect public sentiment, it seems fair to deduce that worry and frustration are rising in the Philippines amid diplomatic tension with Taiwan, triggered by the tragic killing of a 65-year-old Taiwanese fisherman by members of the Philippine Coast Guard on May 9 in Balintang Channel.

Angered by the incident, Taiwan has made four demands: a formal apology, compensation, punishment for the guilty officers, and fishing talks. Taiwan has since stopped issuing work visas to Filipinos and has conducted military exercises near Philippine waters.

To make matters worse, Filipinos, especially politicians, did not immediately recognize the political and subsequent economic blowback of the May 9 shooting as their attention was focused on the May 13 midterm elections.

Taiwan’s military drill did not bother many people, but the economic sanctions alarmed Filipinos eager to work or do business in Taiwan, which is the Philippines’ ninth biggest trading partner. There are 87,000 Filipinos working in Taiwan, mainly in the manufacturing sector.

Accurate or not, news reports about Filipinos being harassed or harmed by angry Taiwanese has caused further anxiety, prompting some to ask if the government has a contingency plan or reintegration program for migrant workers who will be forced to return if the tension escalates. Further, Taiwanese tourists were reportedly leaving the Philippines in large numbers, hurting travel operators. The Taiwanese are among the top foreign visitors to the Philippines.

President Benigno Aquino III was quick to issue an apology on behalf of Filipinos, but this was rejected by the Taiwanese government as insincere. Taiwan failed to appreciate that Aquino extended the apology even before a formal probe of the incident began.

A delegation sent by the Taiwanese government to conduct an investigation in the Philippines released a report describing the May 9 shooting as an act of murder, further inflaming public opinion in Taiwan. Naturally, the Philippine government dismissed the conclusion and insisted that the investigation of the incident is not yet finished.

Further complicating matters, the Philippines cannot accede to a joint investigation due to its adherence to the “One China” policy. It is hoped, nonetheless, that the recent announcement of a “cooperative probe” between the two countries could help to break the diplomatic impasse.

So far, the Philippine Coast Guard is sticking to its story that the shooting was an act of self-defense after the Taiwanese fishing boat allegedly tried to cause its patrol boat to crash. But if reports are true that the shots fired were excessive, Coast Guard officials must then adequately explain this course of action.

Without prejudging the probe, perhaps the officials involved in the tragic shooting hoped to erase public doubt about the Coast Guard’s readiness to assert the country’s sovereignty in its territorial waters. In recent months, the Coast Guard was criticized for failing to prevent a Chinese fishing boat and a U.S. naval ship from entering and damaging Tubbataha Reef, a protected marine habitat. Consequently, many Filipinos view the Coast Guard as ineffective at patrolling the country’s waters and keeping the nation safe from smugglers, traffickers, poachers, and illegal fishers.

Was the alleged excessive force used against the Taiwanese fishing boat a deliberate act meant to prove that the Coast Guard can ward off illegal intruders from entering Philippine waters?

Hopefully, the probe will lead to justice for the slain Taiwanese fisherman. Filipinos also hope that the nation’s damaged relations with Taiwan can soon be repaired so that economic cooperation can resume.

Meanwhile, the Philippine Coast Guard must ask itself why it has utterly failed to prevent intruders from entering its waters– or successfully arrest them—and further, why it has failed to protect the country’s territorial integrity without igniting a diplomatic row.

Written for The Diplomat

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